美对华汇率噪声为何难停歇?Is the United States right China exchange rate noise why hard stop doing business? 美對華匯率噪聲為何難停歇?

2017/02 28 13:02

  美国会参议院11日不顾外界的质疑和反对,以63票赞成、35票反对的投票结果,通过了《2011年货币汇率监督改革法案》。国际舆论普遍认为,此举主要针对中国,旨在逼迫人民币加速升值。这不是美国会第一次通过类似的法案,这样的针对人民币汇率的“噪声”反复出现说明了什么?法案最终获通过的可能性有多大?作为世界最大的两个经济体,中美两国的汇率摩擦会否演变为贸易战?且听有关专家们的解读。

  转移民众视线 维护“老大”地位

  11日通过的这项法案要求美国政府对“汇率被低估”国家征收惩罚性关税。外界普遍认为,此举主要针对人民币,是在美国2012年大选临近之际,出于两党斗争需要,为国内经济颓靡寻找“替罪羊”的一种做法。 

  美国主流媒体和权威专家认为,参院的法案是美国政党为选举而耍的又一次政治把戏,意在为美国当前经济不景气寻找替罪羊,转移美国民众的视线。 

  彼得森国际经济研究所资深研究员罗迪说,美国就汇率问题对人民币施压是选举政治和国内经济困难的混合产物。一方面,明年就是美国的大选年;另一方面,美国居高不下的失业率已经延续数年,国内民众对于经济复苏乏力不满情绪较多,因而有议员再度打出“汇率牌”来转移视线并力图获得大选加分。 

  前瑞士友邦银行上海首席代表余屹说:“美国自己生病了,就要让你也感冒发烧,延迟中国发展步伐。其根本目的是,维护美国世界‘老大’地位,转移国内矛盾。” 

  社科院金融所专家曹红辉说:“美国政府关心的从来不真正是汇率问题,却常常玩转‘汇率’的伎俩。” 

  “美国这种‘一支独大’的心态,是将国内利益置于国际利益之上,甚至试图将国内法律凌驾于国际法之上。”国家发改委对外经济研究所研究员张燕生说。

  讨好选民 赚取选票

  参议院63名成员逼迫人民币升值的更直接动因是所谓的“保护当地产业”或“保护就业”。尽管经济学界普遍认为,各国工人都能在该国有比较优势的行业中找到工作岗位,自由贸易不是造成失业的原因,但是在美国经济处于衰退期、失业率处于9%的高位时,政客们保护本地产业及工作岗位的说辞总能得到选民的欢迎。 

  政客们给出的简单逻辑是:人民币汇率升高以后,中国商品不再廉价,美国人就可以消费美国本土产品,因而可以促进当地制造业、增加本土就业。 

  但是,事实将会是,即使一些产业公司从中国撤走,也会转入越南、印度等制造成本更低的国家,而非美国本土。

  回报金主 获取捐赠

  除了为讨好选民、赢得选票外,国会议员的立场往往还受利益集团的左右。这些利益集团或是公司、或是商会、或是他们在华盛顿雇佣的代言人。 

  鼓动人民币汇率立法的最主要两个利益集团分别是美国钢铁工人联合会与美国制造业联盟。该工会长期主张贸易保护主义,以保护工会工人的权益。去年中期选举前,美国钢铁工人联合会也积极鼓动众议院通过类似的《汇率改革促进公平贸易法案》。

  预测

  政见分歧大法案或只赚“吆喝”

  由于此项法案按照流程还需经过众议院投票通过和美国总统奥巴马签署。目前已经出现了国会两党、参众两院的分歧,让这项法案通过的几率仍然存疑。 

  美国布鲁斯金学会资深研究员威廉·高尔斯顿等专家认为,奥巴马对该法案的态度也始终“暧昧”,法案最终通过的可能性并不太大。 

  路透社等西方媒体也认为,在众议院议长约翰·博纳等共和党高层对该法案的态度上,就可以看出,这个法案最终获得通过的道路并不平坦。很大程度上,这个法案只是“赚吆喝的买卖”,为党派利益造势。

  分析 

  若打贸易战 中美谁怕谁?

  对这项主要针对中国、旨在迫使人民币加速升值的法案,美国各界反对声浪不断。他们认为此举仅为政治游戏,完全无助于美国摆脱当前的经济困境,相反会增加美国民众的生活成本,进而对美国经济产生负面影响。 

  “和中国进行贸易战,是个很愚蠢的做法。”美国华德国际有限责任公司董事长艾伦·威尔代茨说,增加进口关税最终会“惹火上身”,“因为一旦开始增加关税,就会引发贸易战,并产生多米诺骨牌效应,蔓延全球,最终所有的代价都会由美国消费者来承担。” 

  中国的学者也表示,由于两国对对方产品的依赖度不同,若贸易战爆发,美国将更早地感受到痛楚,并且损失更大。 

  “如果中美双方真的打起贸易战来,美国的损失是70%,中国只会有30%。”国际信息研究所副所长、中国军事专家李晓宁称。 

  美国是除欧洲联盟外中国最大的贸易伙伴。今年前8月,中国对美国出口总值达2856.54亿美元,进口总值达2055.56亿美元。除波音飞机外,中国从美国进口的主要商品还包括大豆、玉米等农产品。 

  “美国通过控制美元,创造了典型的虚拟经济,而中国则扎扎实实地在做实体经济。奥巴马不断宣称要通过制造业的振兴创造就业,提振经济。但这是一个缓慢的过程,这个过程必须要依靠中国。”李晓宁称。他因此表示,就算贸易战发生,对中国的影响要远小于美国。  本报综合报道

  评论

  放平心态看美国表演

  美国会参议院11日通过一项“监督”人民币汇率的议案,像是要率领美国与人民币开战。然而美国人中明确反对该议案的不少,包括奥巴马、众议院议长博纳等。有人说,这是美国在中国面前演一出“双簧”,目的就是逼人民币升值。不管这种判断对否,中国其实完全可以放平心态,就把它当成演出看。 

  要围剿人民币,需要在贸易上对中国拥有压倒性的优势,美国有吗?美国真的不用在乎中国市场吗?明眼人都清楚,这项贸易保护议案若真成为法律,必将触发中美贸易战,中美谁都没穿着防弹衣,如果我们怕,那美国怕的程度不会比我们轻。 

  中国完全没必要跟着美国的剧情一惊一乍,甚至把自己变成这场演出的演员,随着美国的曲子起舞。美国的法律程序很复杂,但此案涉及到中国的那部分,说简单也很简单。它的最坏后果就是提高中国对美出口的关税,而对此进行报复,中国手里的弹药同样是足足的。 

  如果中美的经贸关系真的需要倒退一步,它是美国舆论在对华问题上建立清醒不能没有的代价,那么我们应当做的或许是顺其自然。中美经贸大倒退的可能性是零,在两国都有点气、互视的情绪不够冷静时,用经贸的小损失替代其他领域的更剧烈冲突,帮助双方正视对方,重建心理平衡,未必不是划算的。 

  说透了,中美之间只要不打仗,别的冲突都算不上大事。这些冲突或许会帮助中美关系变得更能抗压,也更结实。中美这样的两个大国,既把对方当对手防范,经贸又如此热络,历史极不熟悉,谁敢保证中美之间未来就不会有一些半大不小的风浪?所以双方练习“文明的打斗”,说不上是坏事还是好事。 

  因此,让美国自己去表演吧,让他们自己的理智去战胜激进吧,我们没必要投入巨大资源去影响这个表演的结局。天如果一定要下雨,谁也拦不住。中国出门别忘带伞和雨衣就行。  据《环球时报》



下面是严骏翻译所得
Oppugn and object what beautiful congress senate disregards the outside 11 days, hold with with 63 tickets, the voting kill that 35 tickets oppose, passed ” monetary exchange rate supervised reform bill 2011 ” . International public opinion thinks generally, this action basically is aimed at China, aim to coerce the RMB appreciates quickly. This is not beautiful congress first time pass similar bill, such is aimed at of RMB exchange rate ” noise ” what to go out to explain now repeatedly? Does act obtain the possibility that pass finally to have how old? Regard the world as the largest two economy put oneself in another’s position, can be the exchange rate attrition of Sino-US two countries denied evolve for trade war? And listen to concerned experts unscramble.

Move people line of sight is safeguarded " the old " position

Governments of 11 days of United States of this bill requirement that pass are right ” exchange rate is underestimated ” the country imposes castigatory sex custom duty. The outside thinks generally, this action basically is aimed at a RMB, it is to be in the United States 2012 during general election draws near, stem from need of two parties struggle, search for domestic economy dejected ” scapegoat ” a kind of practice.

American mainstream media and authoritative expert think, the bill that enters a courtyard is American political party play for the election again political trick, meaning searching scapegoat for depression of American current economy, change the line of vision of American people.

Petersen senior researcher Luo Di says international economy institute, the United States applies pressing is election politics and domestic economy difficulty to mix product to the RMB with respect to exchange rate problem. On one hand, the general election that is the United States next year year; On the other hand, the United States resides the unemployment rate that does not leave high to had continued several years, domestic people anabiosises to economy lack of power unsatisfactory is more, consequently assemblyman is hit once more ” exchange rate card ” will change the line of vision and strive obtains general election to add cent.

Before Yu Ge of chief delegate of Shanghai of bank of Swiss friendly nation says: “Him United States fell ill, be about to let you also catch a cold have a fever, defer China grows pace. Its are essential the purpose is, defend American world ‘ the old ‘ position, move home is contradictory. Move home is contradictory..

Gong Hui of Cao of expert of place of finance of company division courtyard says: “American government cares not be exchange rate problem truly, often play however turn ‘ exchange rate ‘ intrigue. Often play however turn ‘ exchange rate ‘ intrigue..

“This plants the United States ‘ alone big ‘ state of mind, be interest of international of domestic interest park over, try to override internal law law on law of nations even. ” national hair changes appoint external Zhang Yan of economic institute researcher is unripe say.

Flattery constituency earns vote

Senatorial what 63 members coerce the RMB appreciates is directer because be so called,move ” protective place industry ” or ” protective obtain employment ” . Although economics bound thinks generally, each country worker can be in this are state-owned working station is found in the industry that compares a dominant position, free trade is not the cause that causes unemployment, but when American economy is in winter, unemployment rate to be in the perch of 9% , politician people the says demit always can get constituency welcome that protects this locality industry and working station.

Politician people the plain logic that give out is: After RMB exchange rate is elevatory, chinese commodity no longer cheap, american can consume American native land product, can promote local manufacturing industry consequently, increase native land obtain employment.

But, the fact will be, although company of a few estates withdraws from China, also can turn into the country with the production Vietnam, lower cost such as India, united States of and rather than is native land.

Redound gold advocate get donate

Besides to please constituency, outside winning vote, the footing of congressman suffers the left and right sides of interest group toward contact. These interest groups or it is a company, or it is chamber of commerce, or it is their spokesman in Washington employ.

Of legislation of agitate RMB exchange rate the mainest two interests group is alliance of federation of American steely worker and American manufacturing industry respectively. This labour union advocates trade protectionism for a long time, in order to protect the rights and interests of union worker. Last year before metaphase election, boule of active also agitate passes federation of person of American steel ironwork similar ” exchange rate reform promotes fair trade bill ” .

Forecast

Old proposed law of political view difference or earn only ” cry out “

Because this act still requires a course according to flow,Boule polls through mixing American president Aobama is signed. Had appeared at present congress two parties, ginseng is numerous the difference of two courtyards, the odds that lets this act pass still impeach.

American Bruce gold learns Gowers of · of senior researcher Williams to wait for an expert to think suddenly, aobama is right the manner of this act also from beginning to end ” ambiguous ” , the possibility that act passes finally is not quite large.

The western media such as Reuter also thinks, the republic party high level such as accept of writing · rich is made an appointment with to go up to the manner of this act in Boule prolocutor, can see, this act wins the way that adopt finally and rough calm. Greatly, this act is only ” the business that gains cry out ” , build for clannish interest situation.

Analysis

If make trade war Sino-US who is afraid of?

Basically be aimed at the China, act that aims to force a RMB to appreciate quickly to this, american all circles objects clamour ceaseless. They think this action is political game only, completely helpless cast off current economic difficult position at the United States, contrary meeting raises the life cost of American people, produce negative effect to American economy then.

“Have trade war with China, it is a very foolish practice. ” time of American China Germany is limited Weierdaici says · of Allan of liability company president, increase import tariff to be met finally ” ask for trouble ” , “Because once begin,raise tariff, can cause trade war, produce domino effect, spread the whole world, final all costs can be assumed by American consumer. Final all costs can be assumed by American consumer..

Chinese scholar also expresses, because two countries is spent to the dependence of product of the other side,differ, if trade war erupts, the United States feels pain early, and the loss is bigger.

“If Sino-US both sides makes trade war really, american loss is 70% , china can have 30% only. ” Li Xiaoning of expert of military affairs of assistant director of international information institute, China says.

The United States is the China outside dividing European alliance’s oldest commerce associate. Before this year in August, china exports total value to amount to two hundred and eighty-five billion six hundred and fifty-four million dollar to the United States, entrance total value amounts to two hundred and five billion five hundred and fifty-six million dollar. Outside removing Boeing plane, the staple commodity that China imports from the United States still includes the produce such as soja, corn.

“The United States carries control dollar, created typical fictitious economy, and China is making hypostatic economy solidly. Aobama alleges ceaselessly want those who carry manufacturing industry to revitalize creation obtain employment, carry brace up economy. But this is a slow process, this process must want to rely on China. ” Li Xiaoning says. He expresses accordingly, calculate trade war to happen, want to Chinese influence far be less than the United States.  Our newspaper reports integratedly

Comment

Put smooth state of mind to watch American show

Beautiful congress senate passes 11 days ” supervise ” of RMB exchange rate second reading, resembling is to should lead the United States and RMB battle. Make clear in American however object this second reading many, include accept of rich of prolocutor of Aobama, Boule to wait. Someone says, this is the United States performs before China ” a two-man act ” , the purpose forces the RMB appreciates namely. No matter this kind of judgement is right,deny, china can put smooth state of mind completely actually, regard it as the performance looks.

Want RMB of encircle and suppress, need has overwhelming advantage to China on commerce, is the United States state-owned? Need not the United States care about Chinese market really? A person of good sense is clear, this trade protection is second reading if become law really, be sure to spark Sino-US trade war, sino-US everybody was wearing ballproof clothes, if we are afraid of, the rate that that United States fears won’t be lighter than us.

China is done not have completely necessary the gut that follows the United States one Jing one suddenly, turn oneself into the actor of this show even, have dance as American melody. Legal order of the United States is very complex, but that share that this case involves China, say simple very simple also. Its worst consequence raises the tariff that China exports to the United States namely, and undertake retaliation to this, the ammo in Chinese hand is likewise fully.

If Sino-US classics trade concerns,true need goes backwards one pace, it is American public opinion is opposite China build on the problem sober the cost that cannot do not have, so what we should treat as is to arrange its nature probably. The possibility that Sino-US classics trade goes backwards greatly is 0, when the mood that in two national capital a bit angry, each other inspects is not quite dispassionate, the small loss that uses classics trade replaces the more acuteness conflict of other sphere, help both sides faces up to the other side, rebuild psychological balance, may not is not be to one’s profit.

Said to appear, sino-US between should not fight only, other conflict does not calculate on important matter. These conflict can help Sino-US relation become probably can fight more pressure, stronger also. Sino-US two such big countries, be on guard the other side when adversary already, classics trade heats up subsidiary channels in the human body through which vital energy so again, historical pole is not familiar, who dare assure Sino-US between won’t future have a few half big not small storm? So both sides practices ” civilized tussle ” , cannot say is evildoing or favour.

Accordingly, let him United States perform, the reason that lets themselves goes conquer is radical, we do not have necessary and devoted huge natural resources to affect the final result of this performance. If the day must rain, everybody does not bar. China goes out not to forget to take umbrella and raincoat to go. According to ” round-the-world times “



下面是韓孟麒翻译所得
  美國會參議院11日不顧外界的質疑和反對,以63票贊成、35票反對的投票結果,通過瞭《2011年貨幣匯率監督改革法案》。國際輿論普遍認為,此舉主要針對中國,旨在逼迫人民幣加速升值。這不是美國會第一次通過類似的法案,這樣的針對人民幣匯率的“噪聲”反復出現說明瞭什麼?法案最終獲通過的可能性有多大?作為世界最大的兩個經濟體,中美兩國的匯率摩擦會否演變為貿易戰?且聽有關專傢們的解讀。

  轉移民眾視線 維護“老大”地位

  11日通過的這項法案要求美國政府對“匯率被低估”國傢征收懲罰性關稅。外界普遍認為,此舉主要針對人民幣,是在美國2012年大選臨近之際,出於兩黨鬥爭需要,為國內經濟頹靡尋找“替罪羊”的一種做法。 

  美國主流媒體和權威專傢認為,參院的法案是美國政黨為選舉而耍的又一次政治把戲,意在為美國當前經濟不景氣尋找替罪羊,轉移美國民眾的視線。 

  彼得森國際經濟研究所資深研究員羅迪說,美國就匯率問題對人民幣施壓是選舉政治和國內經濟困難的混合產物。一方面,明年就是美國的大選年;另一方面,美國居高不下的失業率已經延續數年,國內民眾對於經濟復蘇乏力不滿情緒較多,因而有議員再度打出“匯率牌”來轉移視線並力圖獲得大選加分。 

  前瑞士友邦銀行上海首席代表餘屹說:“美國自己生病瞭,就要讓你也感冒發燒,延遲中國發展步伐。其根本目的是,維護美國世界‘老大’地位,轉移國內矛盾。” 

  社科院金融所專傢曹紅輝說:“美國政府關心的從來不真正是匯率問題,卻常常玩轉‘匯率’的伎倆。” 

  “美國這種‘一支獨大’的心態,是將國內利益置於國際利益之上,甚至試圖將國內法律凌駕於國際法之上。”國傢發改委對外經濟研究所研究員張燕生說。

  討好選民 賺取選票

  參議院63名成員逼迫人民幣升值的更直接動因是所謂的“保護當地產業”或“保護就業”。盡管經濟學界普遍認為,各國工人都能在該國有比較優勢的行業中找到工作崗位,自由貿易不是造成失業的原因,但是在美國經濟處於衰退期、失業率處於9%的高位時,政客們保護本地產業及工作崗位的說辭總能得到選民的歡迎。 

  政客們給出的簡單邏輯是:人民幣匯率升高以後,中國商品不再廉價,美國人就可以消費美國本土產品,因而可以促進當地制造業、增加本土就業。 

  但是,事實將會是,即使一些產業公司從中國撤走,也會轉入越南、印度等制造成本更低的國傢,而非美國本土。

  回報金主 獲取捐贈

  除瞭為討好選民、贏得選票外,國會議員的立場往往還受利益集團的左右。這些利益集團或是公司、或是商會、或是他們在華盛頓雇傭的代言人。 

  鼓動人民幣匯率立法的最主要兩個利益集團分別是美國鋼鐵工人聯合會與美國制造業聯盟。該工會長期主張貿易保護主義,以保護工會工人的權益。去年中期選舉前,美國鋼鐵工人聯合會也積極鼓動眾議院通過類似的《匯率改革促進公平貿易法案》。

  預測

  政見分歧大法案或隻賺“吆喝”

  由於此項法案按照流程還需經過眾議院投票通過和美國總統奧巴馬簽署。目前已經出現瞭國會兩黨、參眾兩院的分歧,讓這項法案通過的幾率仍然存疑。 

  美國佈魯斯金學會資深研究員威廉·高爾斯頓等專傢認為,奧巴馬對該法案的態度也始終“曖昧”,法案最終通過的可能性並不太大。 

  路透社等西方媒體也認為,在眾議院議長約翰·博納等共和黨高層對該法案的態度上,就可以看出,這個法案最終獲得通過的道路並不平坦。很大程度上,這個法案隻是“賺吆喝的買賣”,為黨派利益造勢。

  分析 

  若打貿易戰 中美誰怕誰?

  對這項主要針對中國、旨在迫使人民幣加速升值的法案,美國各界反對聲浪不斷。他們認為此舉僅為政治遊戲,完全無助於美國擺脫當前的經濟困境,相反會增加美國民眾的生活成本,進而對美國經濟產生負面影響。 

  “和中國進行貿易戰,是個很愚蠢的做法。”美國華德國際有限責任公司董事長艾倫·威爾代茨說,增加進口關稅最終會“惹火上身”,“因為一旦開始增加關稅,就會引發貿易戰,並產生多米諾骨牌效應,蔓延全球,最終所有的代價都會由美國消費者來承擔。” 

  中國的學者也表示,由於兩國對對方產品的依賴度不同,若貿易戰爆發,美國將更早地感受到痛楚,並且損失更大。 

  “如果中美雙方真的打起貿易戰來,美國的損失是70%,中國隻會有30%。”國際信息研究所副所長、中國軍事專傢李曉寧稱。 

  美國是除歐洲聯盟外中國最大的貿易夥伴。今年前8月,中國對美國出口總值達2856.54億美元,進口總值達2055.56億美元。除波音飛機外,中國從美國進口的主要商品還包括大豆、玉米等農產品。 

  “美國通過控制美元,創造瞭典型的虛擬經濟,而中國則紮紮實實地在做實體經濟。奧巴馬不斷宣稱要通過制造業的振興創造就業,提振經濟。但這是一個緩慢的過程,這個過程必須要依靠中國。”李曉寧稱。他因此表示,就算貿易戰發生,對中國的影響要遠小於美國。  本報綜合報道

  評論

  放平心態看美國表演

  美國會參議院11日通過一項“監督”人民幣匯率的議案,像是要率領美國與人民幣開戰。然而美國人中明確反對該議案的不少,包括奧巴馬、眾議院議長博納等。有人說,這是美國在中國面前演一出“雙簧”,目的就是逼人民幣升值。不管這種判斷對否,中國其實完全可以放平心態,就把它當成演出看。 

  要圍剿人民幣,需要在貿易上對中國擁有壓倒性的優勢,美國有嗎?美國真的不用在乎中國市場嗎?明眼人都清楚,這項貿易保護議案若真成為法律,必將觸發中美貿易戰,中美誰都沒穿著防彈衣,如果我們怕,那美國怕的程度不會比我們輕。 

  中國完全沒必要跟著美國的劇情一驚一乍,甚至把自己變成這場演出的演員,隨著美國的曲子起舞。美國的法律程序很復雜,但此案涉及到中國的那部分,說簡單也很簡單。它的最壞後果就是提高中國對美出口的關稅,而對此進行報復,中國手裡的彈藥同樣是足足的。 

  如果中美的經貿關系真的需要倒退一步,它是美國輿論在對華問題上建立清醒不能沒有的代價,那麼我們應當做的或許是順其自然。中美經貿大倒退的可能性是零,在兩國都有點氣、互視的情緒不夠冷靜時,用經貿的小損失替代其他領域的更劇烈沖突,幫助雙方正視對方,重建心理平衡,未必不是劃算的。 

  說透瞭,中美之間隻要不打仗,別的沖突都算不上大事。這些沖突或許會幫助中美關系變得更能抗壓,也更結實。中美這樣的兩個大國,既把對方當對手防范,經貿又如此熱絡,歷史極不熟悉,誰敢保證中美之間未來就不會有一些半大不小的風浪?所以雙方練習“文明的打鬥”,說不上是壞事還是好事。 

  因此,讓美國自己去表演吧,讓他們自己的理智去戰勝激進吧,我們沒必要投入巨大資源去影響這個表演的結局。天如果一定要下雨,誰也攔不住。中國出門別忘帶傘和雨衣就行。  據《環球時報》

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