欧债危机几乎难以改善Europe debt crisis is improved hard almost歐債危機幾乎難以改善

2017/02 27 16:02

  近期欧债危机影响着A股市场的趋势。不仅仅体现在前期欧洲股市急跌,A股市场无奈陪跌的走势。而且还体现在欧债危机之后的欧洲经济增速放缓,对整个全球经济的影响开始显现,我国的出口也将受压。

  欧债的影响仍未消除

  就目前欧债的情况来看,影响仍未消除,主要体现在两点,一是未来欧债的余额仍然处于高位。从2011年8月到12月欧债五国到期债务与利息总额来看,意大利、西班牙、希腊占到期债务总额的比例最大,其中意大利到期债务与利息总额为1455.07亿欧元,达到债务五国的61%。从到期集中度来看,9月和10月是债务五国到期债务比较集中的月份,其中,意大利的到期债务和额度在9月份达到了687亿欧元,西班牙10月到期债务额最多,达到282亿欧元;葡萄牙在9、10月份分别有41亿和48亿欧元的债务和利息到期。所以,这两个月的欧洲股市仍不可避免地受到影响。二是经济影响开始显现并有望继续延续。上半年全球经济增速整体下滑。二季度欧元区经济增速为0.2%,远低于一季度的0.8%,其中,德国和法国二季度的经济增速分别为0.1%和0.0%,也分别低于一季度的1.5%和0.9%的增速。美国一季度实际GDP增速仅为0.4%,二季度实际GDP增速的修正值为1.0%。由于欧洲债务危机未消除,所以,可以推测的是,下半年,美国、欧元区经济增速放缓的趋势基本确立。而这与2010年欧债危机爆发初期不同,毕竟当时欧洲经济依然增势强劲。如此来看,此波欧债危机的确对全球经济产生了较大的作用。

  宽松难改善欧债危机

  不过,有分析人士认为,后续的影响不宜过分悲观,因为目前欧洲央行维持利率不变,意味着欧洲央行仍然倾向于适度宽松的货币政策,以度让欧洲债务危机得以平安渡过。

  但是,就目前来看,这一预期可能并不会得到兑现。一是因为美国式的宽松政策来降低债务的方式并不适合欧洲。欧洲经济区由17国组成,各国形势不同。欧洲央行通过通货膨胀手段降低债务,会伤害其信誉。另外,欧洲债券与美债不同,美债在本国境外被大量持有,而欧洲债券却主要在欧洲本身,并且欧洲普通居民也持有欧债,采取量化宽松的方式无法转风险。二是因为欧债危机的实质根源是因为欧洲长期的高福利所带来。近期媒体一直报道希腊等债务危机中心的国家与地区,工人福利达到了前所未有的地步,所以,造成了大量的政府财政赤字。在此背景下,仅仅依造适度宽松的货币政策是改变不了财政赤字状况的。但一旦减少政府财政赤字,减少社会福利,又会引起居民不满,社会动荡。这也是欧共体成员国的政治领导人所不愿意看到的。既如此,目前欧债危机几乎到了难以改善的地步。

  A股仍将面临冲击

  因此,当前A股市场的压力依然存在,这其实也体现在两个方面,一是直接方面,主要是通过心理因素体现出来的。比如说一旦欧债危机进一步深化,那么,欧洲股市就会急跌。在此背景下,A股市场必然会出现大幅低开,从而使得欧债危机深化的心理压力从欧洲股市直接传递到A股市场。二是间接方面,主要是指通过经济增速放缓进而对A股市场出口为主的上市公司业绩放缓的逻辑思路体现出来。在此背景下,A股的压力不可忽视。  金百临咨询  秦洪

下面是李波翻译所得
Crisis of debt of near future Europe is affecting the climate of field of A stock market. Reflect not just drop urgently in stock market of early days Europe, field of A stock market is helpless accompany drop go situation. And the European economy after still reflecting crisis of debt is in Europe is added fast put delay, begin to show to the influence of economy of whole whole world, the exit of our country also press press.

The influence of Europe debt still was not eliminated

Current in light of the circumstance of Europe debt, the influence still was not eliminated, basically reflect at 2 o’clock, the remaining sum that is prospective Europe debt still is in perch. Arrive from August 2011 in December Europe debt 5 countries expire in light of debt and accrual amount, italy, Spain, Greek occupy expire the proportion of debt total is the largest, among them Italy expires debt and accrual amount are one hundred and forty-five billion five hundred and seven million euro, obtain debt 61% of 5 countries. From expire to be spent centrally in light of, will mix in September October is debt 5 countries expire the month that debt focuses quite, among them, of Italy expire debt and forehead are spent 68.7 billion euro will be achieved September, spain will expire in October amount of debt is most, achieve 28.2 billion euro; Portuguese in 9, respectively the 4.1 billion debt with 4.8 billion euro and accrual will expire October. So, the European stock market of these two months still is affected inevitably. 2 it is economic influence begins to show and hopeful continues to continue. Global economy adds fast whole to glide first half of the year. Economy of region of 2 quarters euro is added fast for 0.2% , far under 0.8% first quarter, among them, the economy of 2 quarters adds Germany and France fast it is respectively 0.1% with 0.0% , also part under first quarter 1.5% and of 0.9% add fast. Actual first quarter GDP adds the United States fast it is only 0.4% , actual GDP gains 2 quarters fast correction is 1.0% . Because European debt crisis was not eliminated, so, OK and conjectural is, second half of the year, economy of region of the United States, euro is added fast the trend that puts delay is basic establish. And this and Europe debt crisis erupted 2010 earlier and different, after all European economy still is added at that time force is powerful. Will look so, crisis of this Europe debt produced bigger effect to global economy really.

Crisis of debt of Europe of comfortable difficult improvement

Nevertheless, analytic personage thinks, follow-up influence shoulds not be beyond the mark and pessimistic, because at present European Central Bank keeps interest rate changeless, mean European Central Bank still the monetary policy with measurable and loose apt, let European debt crisis in order to spend be able to overshoot in safety.

But, come round to look with respect to eye, this anticipates a possibility and can not get cashing. Because the loose policy of American type will reduce the kind of debt and do not suit Europe,be. European economy area is comprised by 17 countries, each country situation is different. European Central Bank reduces debt through inflationary measure, can injure its reputation. Additional, european bond and beautiful debt are different, beautiful debt home condition tegument is many hold, and European bond basically is in Europe however itself, and European average resident also hold Europe debt, adopt quantify full kind to cannot turn risk. 2 because because what long-term Gao Fuli brings Europe,the substantial germ of Europe debt crisis is,be. Near future media reports all the time Greek the country that waits for debt crisis center and area, worker material benefits reached unprecedented degree, so, caused many governmental finance deficit. Here setting falls, depend on merely making measurable and loose monetary policy was not to change finance deficit condition. But once reduce governmental finance deficit, reduce social welfare, can cause a dweller to resent again, the society is queasy. This also is Europe in all the political leader of body member country place is not willing to see. Already such, the degree that at present Europe debt crisis reached to be improved hard almost.

A will still be faced with concussion

Accordingly, the pressure of field of current A stock market still exists, this also is reflected actually in two respects, it is direct respect, basically come out now through psychological factor substance. Once Europe debt crisis is farther,deepen for example, so, european stock market can drop urgently. Here setting falls, field of A stock market can appear necessarily considerably low, make thereby the psychological pressure that Europe debt crisis deepens delivers field of A stock market directly from European stock market. 2 it is indirect respect, advocate if point to,add through economy fast put delay to be given priority to to exit of field of A stock market then appear on the market company outstanding achievement puts the logistic train of thought of delay to reflect. Here setting falls, a pressure cannot be ignored. Jin Bailin seeks advice The Qin Dynasty big
下面是劉惠琴翻译所得
  近期歐債危機影響著A股市場的趨勢。不僅僅體現在前期歐洲股市急跌,A股市場無奈陪跌的走勢。而且還體現在歐債危機之後的歐洲經濟增速放緩,對整個全球經濟的影響開始顯現,我國的出口也將受壓。

  歐債的影響仍未消除

  就目前歐債的情況來看,影響仍未消除,主要體現在兩點,一是未來歐債的餘額仍然處於高位。從2011年8月到12月歐債五國到期債務與利息總額來看,意大利、西班牙、希臘占到期債務總額的比例最大,其中意大利到期債務與利息總額為1455.07億歐元,達到債務五國的61%。從到期集中度來看,9月和10月是債務五國到期債務比較集中的月份,其中,意大利的到期債務和額度在9月份達到瞭687億歐元,西班牙10月到期債務額最多,達到282億歐元;葡萄牙在9、10月份分別有41億和48億歐元的債務和利息到期。所以,這兩個月的歐洲股市仍不可避免地受到影響。二是經濟影響開始顯現並有望繼續延續。上半年全球經濟增速整體下滑。二季度歐元區經濟增速為0.2%,遠低於一季度的0.8%,其中,德國和法國二季度的經濟增速分別為0.1%和0.0%,也分別低於一季度的1.5%和0.9%的增速。美國一季度實際GDP增速僅為0.4%,二季度實際GDP增速的修正值為1.0%。由於歐洲債務危機未消除,所以,可以推測的是,下半年,美國、歐元區經濟增速放緩的趨勢基本確立。而這與2010年歐債危機爆發初期不同,畢竟當時歐洲經濟依然增勢強勁。如此來看,此波歐債危機的確對全球經濟產生瞭較大的作用。

  寬松難改善歐債危機

  不過,有分析人士認為,後續的影響不宜過分悲觀,因為目前歐洲央行維持利率不變,意味著歐洲央行仍然傾向於適度寬松的貨幣政策,以度讓歐洲債務危機得以平安渡過。

  但是,就目前來看,這一預期可能並不會得到兌現。一是因為美國式的寬松政策來降低債務的方式並不適合歐洲。歐洲經濟區由17國組成,各國形勢不同。歐洲央行通過通貨膨脹手段降低債務,會傷害其信譽。另外,歐洲債券與美債不同,美債在本國境外被大量持有,而歐洲債券卻主要在歐洲本身,並且歐洲普通居民也持有歐債,采取量化寬松的方式無法轉風險。二是因為歐債危機的實質根源是因為歐洲長期的高福利所帶來。近期媒體一直報道希臘等債務危機中心的國傢與地區,工人福利達到瞭前所未有的地步,所以,造成瞭大量的政府財政赤字。在此背景下,僅僅依造適度寬松的貨幣政策是改變不瞭財政赤字狀況的。但一旦減少政府財政赤字,減少社會福利,又會引起居民不滿,社會動蕩。這也是歐共體成員國的政治領導人所不願意看到的。既如此,目前歐債危機幾乎到瞭難以改善的地步。

  A股仍將面臨沖擊

  因此,當前A股市場的壓力依然存在,這其實也體現在兩個方面,一是直接方面,主要是通過心理因素體現出來的。比如說一旦歐債危機進一步深化,那麼,歐洲股市就會急跌。在此背景下,A股市場必然會出現大幅低開,從而使得歐債危機深化的心理壓力從歐洲股市直接傳遞到A股市場。二是間接方面,主要是指通過經濟增速放緩進而對A股市場出口為主的上市公司業績放緩的邏輯思路體現出來。在此背景下,A股的壓力不可忽視。  金百臨咨詢  秦洪

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